Review pages Page number: 113-116. These pages cover Intelligence Led Policing and predictive Policing. Answer the below question in at least a 250 word response. Explain intelligence-led policing and predictive policing.(this is the questionChapter 5
Technologies and Tools for the Tasks 113
ving to understand how,
Hing to them. In this vein,
nderstanding the mental
t crimes (although crim-
hefit the problem-solving
Criminology. It requires
Sperimentation with the
result in strategic crime
ise of statistics to make
Casting crime trends
zot delve into it at this
very useful for making
nerally a year or more
principal uses involves
short period of time
li, and type of weapon
chapter is geographic
resides based on the
necting a suspect to a
escriptions as well as
ny states search their
The ARJIS system of San Diego County affords tactical, investigative, statistical, and crime analysis
information to police, and a wealth of information to the public. Here, a map shows East Escondido
citizens the locations of residential burglaries during a recent one-month time frame
Courtesy ARJIS Crime Mapping Research Center.
itiatives and needs to
Analysis for Problem
CompStat pushes all precincts to generate weekly or monthly crime activity reports. Crime
data are readily available, offering up-to-date information that is then compared at citywide,
patrol, and precinct levels.
Under CompStat, police begin proactively thinking about ways to deal with crime in terms
of suppression, intervention, and prevention. Commanders must proactively respond to crime
problems, and explain what tactics they have employed to address crime patterns, what resources
they have and need, and with whom they have collaborated. Follow-up by top brass further
-solving process is
ned for the collec-
4, CompStat has
those with 100 or
INTELLIGENCE-LED POLICING. ILP originated in Great Britain, where police believed that a
relatively small number of people were responsible for a comparatively large percentage of
crimes; they believed that officers would have the best effect on crime by focusing on the most
prevalent offenses occurring in their jurisdiction.25
The word “intelligence” is often misused; the most common mistake is to consider “intelli-
gence as synonymous with “information.” Information is not intelligence; rather, “information
plus analysis equals intelligence,” and without analysis, there is no intelligence. Intelligence is what
is produced after collected data is evaluated and analyzed by a trained intelligence professional. 26
Exhibit 5-4 explains the views of the federal Bureau of Justice Assistance concerning the
need for and the development and functions of ILP.
To better comprehend what is meant by ILP is to break it down into its core components. For
example, many police agencies have both crime analysts and intelligence analysts. Crime analysts
keep their fingers on the pulse of crime in the jurisdiction which crime trends are up, which ones
114 Chapter 5 • Technologies and Tools for the Tasks
Intelligence-led Policing: Origins and Functions
ILP, while a relatively new concept in the United States, was an outcome of British efforts during
Model (NIM) that established the following priorities for British police service:
ous crime. In 2000, the National Criminal Intelligence Service published the National Intelligence
the late 1990s to manage law enforcement resources efficiently and to respond effectively to seri-
Target prolific offenders through overt and covert means
Manage crime and disorder hotspots
Identify and investigate linked series of crime or incidents
Apply prevention measures that include working with a broad range of other disciplines
NIM priorities were grounded in experience and solid research. Several authoritative longi-
small minority of offenders commit a majority of crimes. It is well known that crime reports and
tudinal projects, in America and the United Kingdom, have convincingly demonstrated that a
service calls often cluster predominately at specific locations; research has shown that violent
crime and neighborhood disorder can be reduced by focused, multiagency efforts in which law
ILP does not replace the concepts of problem-solving policing or the community involve
ment and neighborhood maintenance theories (broken windows), nor the police accountability
and information sharing practices (CompStat). It builds on these concepts to keep pace with
changes in society, technology, and criminal behavior. ILP encourages greater use of criminal
intelligence; attends to offenders more than offenses; and offers a more targeted, forward-thinking,
enforcement plays an important, if not exclusive role.
FIGURE 5-2 The
Source: U.S. Depart
multijurisdictional and prevention point of view to the business of policing.
As such, successful adoption of ILP will generally involve the following practices:
► Information collection is part of the organizational culture-led by the chief executive,
, and managers encourage line officers and investigators to regularly collect
and forward intelligence.
Analysis is indispensable to tactical and strategic planning–record management sys-
tems are robust, analysts are well-trained and equipped, actionable intelligence products
are regularly produced to inform both tactical and strategic decisions.
► Enforcement tactics are focused, prioritized by community harm assessments and pre-
vention-oriented; operations are mounted against repeat or violent offenders; serious
organized (gang, trafficking, etc.) groups are identified and dismantled; and traffic vio-
lations are enforced at dangerous intersections or roadways.
an online aucti
ding on? Esser
used to deterr
however, that 1
: Adapted from Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Assistance, “Intelligence-led Policing,” http://www.jf.
usdoj.gov/BJA/topics/ilp.html (Accessed September 20, 2010).
are down, where the hot spots are, what type of property is being stolen, and so on. Intelligence
in the jurisdiction: who they are, where they live, what they do, who they associate with, and so on
(see Exhibit 5-4). Integrating these two functions–crime analysis and intelligence analysis—is
essential for obtaining a comprehensive grasp of the crime picture. Crime analysis allows the
police to understand the “what, when, and where,” while intelligence analysis provides a
with a few ne
that can predi
that are focus
thing is futur
atively new 1
policing is in
standing the who”–crime networks and individuals.
Chapter 5. Technologies and Tools for the Tasks 115
FIGURE 5-2 The Intelligence Gathering Process
Attawww.fas.org/irp/agency/doj/ncisp.pdf (Accessed December 7, 2009).
Sauter US Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan, p. 6,
As shown in Figure 5-2, the National Criminal Intelligence Sharing Plan (NCISP)27 categorizes
the intelligence gathering process into six steps: planning and direction, collection, processing/
collation, analysis, dissemination, and reevaluation.
PREDICTIVE POLICING. Have you ever logged onto a Web site to purchase an item and seen
something like other customers who placed similar orders also ordered these items”? Or entered
an online auction service and been provided with some items you might also be interested in bid-
ding on? Essentially, in these cases private businesses are harnessing social sciences to predict
human behavior. The processes used in predicting your shopping behavior are the same ones
used to determine criminal behavior, only they are using different data sets (bearing in mind,
however, that private industry may be able to use more personal data than a police agency can).
Welcome to the world of predictive analysis, where the next generation of police problem
solving could combine existing technologies like computers, crime analysis, and police reports
with a few newer technologies such as artificial intelligence. The future may well bring a system
that can predict crimes before they happen-with predictive analytics acting as a force multiplier
that are focused on problem solving.29 Of course, high-tech tools alone cannot solve crimes, but
men trained crime analysts and police management combine the tools with their ingenuity, any-
thing is future in this high-tech world.
The term “predictive policing,” according to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), is a rel-
tively new law enforcement concept that “integrates approaches such as cutting-edge crime
analysis, crime-fighting technology, intelligence-lead policing, and more to inform forward
thinking crime prevention strategies and tactics.” The DOJ states that, ultimately, predictive
policing is intended as a framework to advance strategies like community policing, problem-oriented
policing, ILP, and hot spots policing.’
116 Chapter 5. Technologies and Tools for the Tasks
The police have always known that robberies surge near
check-cashing businesses, that
crime spikes on hot days and plummets during the rain, that residential burglaries often occur on
Sunday mornings (while people are attending church services), and that Super Bowl Sunday
usually the slowest crime day of the year. But officers’ minds can store and remember only so
much data. So when the police monitor crime data and query a computer system for historical
and time spans, where crimes are likely to occur. More Important, the crime-analysis software
and real-time patterns, they can predict, more systematically, over a bigger area, and across shifts
Thus, if commercial robberies were high in, say, March 2010, their software would predict
hit, their locations, and time of day. The system can even analyze a robber’s modus operandi
another spike in March 2011, and the police could then look at the types of businesses that were
patched to a domestic dispute that involves a man and woman. You arrive at the home, knock on the
How might predictive policing work for the street officer? Well, imagine that you are dis-
door, are escorted into the living room, and all is going as it has gone on such calls a thousand
times–but now you are engaged in a struggle for your life. Do you believe that you might have
approached this call differently if, upon being given the call, your mobile computer had awakened
with the following flurry of information? The male subject you are about to confront has been
viously arrested for assaulting officers in another jurisdiction and was recently arrested for driving
city, would it not be better to know the patterns of such thefts so as to predict when and where they
of 30 sur
does not forget details, get sick, take vacation, or transfer to a different precinct.
what was said, type of weapon used, and so on.
the first ir
under the influence. Or, if you know there have been copper thefts from construction sites in
are likely to happen, rather than having to rely on parking the patrol car in various areas and hop
ing for blind luck? These are just a few simple examples of how predictive policing can be applied
simply by looking at patterns of behavior-to the patrol officer in addition to crime analysts.
Other Applications: Geographic Profiling and Hot Spots
GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING. Geographic profiling, or the combined use of geography, psychology,
and mathematics to identify the location of an offender
, is most commonly associated with tracking
down serial killers, rapists, and arsonists. However, it is a useful investigative tool in any case in which
an individual offender has committed criminal activity across a series of locations. Geographic pro-
filing suggests investigative alternatives based on the “hunting behavior” of the offender. Leading geo-
graphic profiler Kim Rossmo argues that criminals are no different in their pattern of carrying out
their offenses than ordinary citizens are in going about their day-to-day activities.
Following this principle, geographic profiling uses the nearness principle as a key rule. The
nearness principle argues that offenders will remain within a limited range that is comfortable to
them when committing their offenses, just as animals will forage within a limited range from
their base. This principle has led to the creation of a computerized geographic profiling worksta-
tion that includes statistical analyses, geographic features, and database management to aid in
calculating investigative suggestions. Crime scenes are broken down by type and entered by loca-
tion, and addresses of suspects can be evaluated based on their probability of being the actual
ers, and other information.
. This can help investigators sort through existing records, such as registered sex offend-
areas-investigation and prevention:
In the wake of attacks by terrorists on U.S. soil, the role and function of crime analysts have
become even more crucial. Crime analysts approach to counterterrorism involves two major
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